MARVIN BAGLEY III

BIRTHDATE: 3/14/99

POSITION: Power Forward

HEIGHT: 6'11"

WEIGHT: 225 lbs

SCHOOL/ TEAM: Duke

CLASS: Freshman

STRENGTHS

Athleticism - Elite level athlete, great fluidity and coordination, quick leaper who can make plays above the rim, can defend guards when switched

Size -  Has height to play both front court positions

Motor - Plays with great motor and energy, can score points and change games just off his activity

Offensive package - Best when used in the dunker and in transition, can put ball on floor vs slower defenders. Is effective as a roll man

Post game - Nice soft touch on jump hook, Can make quick moves in post before help comes, still a developing skill

Transition - Loves to run the floor and has shown ability to start or finish break

Rebounding - A rebounding threat on offensive and defensive glass. Has nose for basketball.

Defense - Potential to be a great defender on switches due to athleticism and feet.

WEAKNESSES

Strength - Will need to get stronger to be effective in post on NBA level

Wingspan - Does not possess the plus wingspan that is coveted from prospects

Right hand - Tendency to make post moves off left shoulder and finish with left hand instead of right

Shot selection - Occasionally will force shots or try to do too much. Much more effective when not trying to create for himself

Rim protection - Not much of a rim protector; lacks great timing, instincts and length.

Shooting - Does not stretch the floor and struggles at free throw line. His shooting could determine his long term NBA position.

Skill set - More athletic, coordinated and energetic than skilled.

RAFAEL BARLOWE - NOVEMBER 23, 2017

Marvin Bagley III reclassified this summer and immediately transformed Duke from a contender to favorite to win the NCAA tournament next April. In some circles Bagley is considered one of the best high school players in the last 20 years. After just a few minutes of watching, it's easy to see why he's so highly regarded and projected to be the #1 pick on numerous mock drafts.

What makes Bagley so special is his elite level athleticism, coordination, explosiveness and pop. To make it simple, Marvin Bagley III is a freak athlete with a motor that could power a Bugatti Chiron. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't think Bagley is all that skilled. At this point in his career, he's not a threat to stretch the floor and his poor free throw shooting indicate his shooting struggles. On post ups Bagley lacks polish and strength to hold his position, but shows good touch on his left hand running hook. He also has a tendency to rush or force shots in traffic. It's pretty evident Bagley is at his best when he's getting points off the hustle or is set up.

Whatever skills and polish Bagley lacks, he more than makes up for it with his athleticism, energy and his nose for the basketball. He can dominate a game off his effort alone, whether its running the floor in transition or attacking the offensive glass, Bagley is a matchup nightmare for opposing bigs. Like every other basketball junkie, I was looking forward to the Duke vs Michigan State game in Chicago last week to see Bagley vs Jaren Jackson, Jr. Bagley left the game early due to an eye injury, but in the 10 minutes he played, he snagged 6 rebounds.

On the defensive end, Bagley has the footwork and agility to switch out on guards. But despite his excellent pop and explosiveness, he doesn't seem to have the great timing and shot blocking instincts to project as a rim protector in NBA.

So is he a Center of Power Forward? Currently he's best suited to play the 5, but he lacks the bulk to defend centers who outweigh him by 30-40 pounds. If you play him at the 4 spot he could negatively impact spacing since he doesn't stretch the floor. 

With all that being said, I still think Bagley could end up as the #1 pick depending on the needs of the team with the top pick in the draft. I'm curious to see if he shows more range and improves his free throwing shooting as the season goes on..

RAFAEL BARLOWE - NOVEMBER 23, 2017

---------------------------

Strengths:

Athleticism: Great athlete, explosive second jumper. Extremely coordinated, euro steps, side steps. Great hands in traffic.
Upside: Willing shooter on the perimeter, mechanics aren’t an issue. Great touch around the basket and elevates on every shot in the paint.
Intangibles: Best asset is his motor
Does a good job maintaining position on the block. Runs the floor like a guard and can get out on the wing.

Weaknesses:

Skills: Everything is off the muscle.
Is driving left every single time. Everything is off his right shoulder. In isolations, it’s all hard drives left. He doesn’t jab when he faces up. He has no real counter moves when he left is cut off. He’d be scary if he was skilled.
Defense: Not a rim protector although he’s a great athlete.
Shooting: On pace towards being a 60% free throw shooter. He tries to shoot 3s but it’s an underdeveloped skill for him. He plays like a modernized NBA rim running big but he doesn’t protect the rim. He’s going to have to be able to shoot the play the 4.

 

JAMES BARLOWE - NOVEMBER 30, 2017

SUMMARY